Dead Heat
Going into the Florida primary on January 31st, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are in a virtually draw. Whoever can break this deadlock will have a decisive advantage heading up to March 6 (Super Tuesday). The Florida primary is closed, which means that only individuals who are registered members of the Republican party can vote. Independents will not have a say during this election. This would lead one to believe that the issues, press conferences and debates will all be a little more conservative in nature.
Why does having a closed primary help the GOP? Because in theory during an open primary (South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, etc) any person may vote in the primary including those who are registered Democrats and would it not make sense for Democrats to vote for the weakest possible candidate so during the national election their candidate faces less opposition. It especially holds true in a reelection year when the other party is not necessarily going through the infighting of a primary battle.
Immigration is going to be a key issue heading into Florida, and how Romney and Gingrich shape their arguments might go a long way in determining the winner. Romney’s “self-deportation” will be an issue that could make or break him in Florida. We have five days and counting and barring a Ron Paul victory in Florida, the GOP will have a front-runner in this stretch run leading up until Super Tuesday.
